The Almond Board of California has released the June Position Report with record shipments of +278.5 million pounds compared to 220.4 million pounds last year for an increase of +26.3 percent. Exports lead the charge being up 38.3% over last year. The availability of vessels and equipment combined with lower almond prices resulted in excellent export shipments. The +278.5 million pounds was the largest shipment for this 2021 crop season and the second largest shipment month in the history of the almond industry!
Million Pounds Percent
DOMESTIC +63.92 -2.0%
EXPORT +214.67 +38.3%
COUNTRY 2022 MILLION POUNDS 2021 Million Pounds
INDIA 39.3 15.5
SPAIN 29.4 22.1
GERMANY 16.6 14.1
UAE 15.0 9.5
NETHERLANDS 12.5 7.5
MOROCCO 9.1 6.5
YEAR TO DATE SHIPMENTS: Now at +2.464 Billion pounds compared to 2.668 billion pounds last year for a decrease of 7.65 percent.
CROP RECEIPTS: We are now at +2.914 Billion Pounds compared to last year’s 3.102 billion pounds for a decrease of 6.07 percent.
CROP ESTIMATE: The 2022 Objective Crop Estimate was announced this past Friday at 2.6 Billion pounds, which is 7% less than the Subjective Estimate of 2.8 billion pounds and 11 percent down compared to the 2021 crop of 2.91 billion pounds. The 2022 Nonpareil crop will be smaller in quantity by 12 percent than last year, and kernel sizes will be slightly larger. Buyers in India will embrace this news of larger kernel sizes for the new crop. Growers are embracing the report as it should assist in firming up pricing on new crop by 10-15 cents per pound. Buyers will be more reluctant now to forward contract new crop since prices have jumped up. Markets needing high quality NP Extra and K/J Spec will step in early to buy as their local markets have less inventory of elite quality Nonpareil kernels.
MARKET: During the past month, prices softened as packers and call pool growers wanted to sell and reduce their inventory in the warehouse prior to the next harvest starting in August. Now with the smaller than expected Crop Estimate coming out at 2.6 billion pounds, we have seen all prices firm up on both current and new crop. Prior to the crop estimate Stds were at 1.70 FAS and after the crop estimate at 1.80 FAS for a ten cent per pound increase from the crop estimate alone. New Sales in June of Current crop were at +118.7 million pounds and New Crop sales were at +107.4 million pounds. The Industry is now sold at +87.1 percent from the crop and carry in. 2022 New crop sales based on the 2.6 billion crop estimate are now at 9 percent overall. From a Macro perspective, the 2021 crop was smaller by 6.07% from the 2020 crop and shipments are now down by 7.65% from a year ago, so in essence we are only behind in shipments by 1.58% when you factor in the smaller crop we had this year compared to 2020 crop, which is relatively good when you consider the global shipping challenges we all faced during the first nine months of this shipping season. Our carry out that was once thought insurmountable, is now becoming very manageable for the industry. With this stronger than expected shipment number, we will see prices for current and new crop move up another 5- 10 cents over the 10 cent per pound increase from the smaller than expected crop estimate last Friday. These two reports will increase pricing by 15-20 cents per pound overall.
SHIPPING INDUSTRY: We have seen better shipments during the past three months as the shipping lines have had more vessels and equipment available. Unfortunately, the shipping lines have price gauged us on prices during the past six months, which is a detriment to all involved making each load more expensive the previously planned on. With available vessel and equipment, product is moving at a record pace.
CURRENCY and INFLATION: The US Dollar has strengthened against most currencies in the past few months making almonds more expensive in the local markets. Inflation is taking its toll in certain markets as buyers are looking at purchasing Independence and Carmel’s to look for cheaper almonds than Nonpareils. Dollar is now equal to the Euro, a first in over 20 years! It is time for Americans to travel to Europe!
- 1 Dollar = 1 Euro
- 1 Dollar= 79.5 Indian Rupees
- 1 Dollar= 6.72 Chinese Yuan
- 1 Dollar = 17.36 Turkish Lira
DEMAND: As you have demand for specific items please advise us so we may assist you. Thanks
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